All of those things but also, supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine is internally consistent with their views on Taiwan. They cannot denounce Russian aggression on Ukraine but still openly claim Taiwan.
It's actually the opposite: supporting Russia's invasion is in direct conflict with China's long-standing official line that sovereignty must be the primary principle in international relations.
From China's point of view, Taiwan is purely a question of Chinese sovereignty. They've never recognized the Taipei government and they try to sanction countries that do recognize Taiwan. The idea is that this "recognition limbo" leaves Taiwan under Chinese sovereignty by default.
Yet China has formally recognized Ukraine and its original post-Soviet borders. It's hard for them to now make the argument that Ukrainian sovereignty is meaningless but other countries must not interfere with Chinese sovereignty.
Of course the situation is nuanced. But we're here to discuss territorial wars of aggression. Not to write a book on ages old cultural interactions. Taiwan and China are both separate sovereign states defacto. They have functioning governments and standing militaries. Any meaningful discussion about the issue has to start from there. Pretending the RoC military doesn't exist just because a bunch of people on the mainland feels like it doesn't actually change reality.
If the PRC wants to change that reality then that means military action at this stage. One China quickly looks like woo woo bullshit when Chengdus start falling out of the sky and Taipei 101 gets hit with a cruise missile.
>If they invade it will be seen as an act of aggression and one nation invading another.
Sure but that doesn't mean they are the same. Ukraine is a country that is recognised by both Russia and a UN member state recognised by most of the world. Taiwan is not recognised by China and only 13 UN member states.
About a billion of these "deluded tankies" live in China.
> Russia does formally recognize them as a nation
Formal recognitions aside, but if you go anywhere from the Russian extreme left (e.g. Gorbachev) to the Russian extreme right (e.g. Solzhenitsyn), there's one thing they agree upon: they all think Ukraine is historically tied to Russia. Like it or not, there is a wide consensus in Russia with regards to that.
It has served Russian policy since the 90's to have Ukraine and Belarus as independent states, since 3 votes in the UN are better than one.
>About a billion of these "deluded tankies" live in China.
Yup. Although generally I reserve the term for those that come online to spout the propaganda. I suppose most are doing that within the sinosphere part of the internet.
>Formal recognitions aside, but if you go anywhere from the Russian extreme left (e.g. Gorbachev) to the Russian extreme right (e.g. Solzhenitsyn), there's one thing they agree upon: they all think Ukraine is historically tied to Russia. Like it or not, there is a wide consensus in Russia with regards to that.
>It has served Russian policy since the 90's to have Ukraine and Belarus as independent states, since 3 votes in the UN are better than one.
100% agree. I think the real reason Russia is doing this is because they see Ukraine as part of their sphere of influence and Ukrainians taking another path is unacceptable. For Russian leadership, its a case of exerting leverage and control on the states that have been "traditionally" under their thumb, this dates back through the communist era to Imperial Russia and even before in some cases. Its a very old and deep rooted notion.
For the average Russian I wouldn't be surprised if state media have convinced them of the average Ukrainian supporting Russia's invasion, as their outside propaganda claims.
I actually see a lot of parallels between this and how the US has handled stuff in its own backyard. There is a history of the US supporting tin pot dictators simply because the dictator was willing to play ball and the people of the nation overthrowing them. And then there's the banana wars.
I'd like to think we've grown out of that. But that's probably not the case. There is definitely still some intervention in central and south America mostly as part of the war on drugs, but that's not to the same degree as in the past .
China has never recognized Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Russia and China are among the parties to the Budapest Memorandum, a 1994 treaty recognizing Ukraine as a sovereign nation.
1: The international community probably doesn't care if they don't. It will still be seen as an invasion. 2: While Russia formally recognizes Ukraine as a country I don't believe they currently recognize its democratically elected government as legitimate which is the basis for their bogus Casus Belli.
Putin is doing this for popularity boost, as he has successfully employed several times before. The reasons he gives publicly are contradictory.
And in any case the treaty doesn't allow for invasion upon the government being perceived as illegitimate. This is an aggressive war, considered since the end of WW2 to be the supreme international crime.
The problem still so far is everything done to hold Putin accountable is viewed by Russians as the West vs Russia. This invasion is viewed not as aggressive war, but liberating Ukraine from Nazis. Exactly what Putin says domestically.
And yes, most of the rest of the world recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign country, except formally they use language consistent with One China to avoid a row with China
Taiwan, the island, was once a part of territory claimed by Imperial China. Eventually, Taiwan was given to Japan in some war back in the day.
Right before WWII, civil war broke out. The Chinese Communist party wanted to overthrow the ROC and reform the government in their image. Then WWII happened and they agreed to pause the civil war to deal with the Japanese coming in from East.
WWII ended with the defeat of Japan and as part of the terms of surrender, Taiwan was given back to the ROC.
After WWII, the civil war was back on, but with the ROC having been significantly weakened by WWII. Eventually, the CCP overthrew the ROC on the mainland and formed the People's Republic of China (PRC), while the ROC fled to the island of Taiwan.
The PRC sees Taiwan as part of China thanks to the Japanese terms of surrender. Taiwan was ceded to the government of China, they are the government of China. QED, Taiwan is theirs.
The ROC sees themselves as the rightful government of China in exile. Yes, Taiwan belongs to China, but they are China. The PRC needs to give the mainland back to them.
Things have progressed since then. There are some on the island with different opinions these days.
The policy of the PRC and some factions in the ROC is the One-China policy. There is only one China, it includes the mainland and Taiwan. The only disagreement is about which government is legitimate.
Some in the ROC advocate a two-state solution, in which you'd have the PRC and ROC, each with their territories and that's that.
Then there are people in Taiwan who feel that they should be their own independent nation and not "Chinese" at all.
So basically, with regards to your question, the answer is every answer possible. I think the official position is One-China though. I think there's enough of that faction to make winning elections impossible if you explicitly reject it.
Thank you for writing such a thorough comment. So often people comment on HN without a basis in any of these facts.
I think it’s important to add that Taiwan, like China, was an authoritarian state up until the 90s. The shift to democracy since then has given room for a lot of these different factions to take hold and develop on the island.
One thing to add, Taiwan formally gave up its claims to the mainland some time ago. While the One China policy still has some popularity there, it seems that the idea of Taiwan as a separate nation and people is growing day by day.
There's the ROC-in-exile people and then there are people who have lived on the island for generations.
Like, I said, things have progressed. There's "One China", "Two Chinas", and "China and Taiwan".
I think the longer things remain as they are, the more likely it'll settle into a "China and Taiwan" situation as both sides just kind of tire of fighting an issue their great grandparents started.
Wrong. China already said what they think: every country's sovereignity must be respected, and they hope the conflict in Ukraine will be resolved quickly... however, Taiwan is a domestic issue for China alone to worry about and other countries should stay out of it.
You have to love that line of thinking. Everyone gets self determination except for those guys because la la la we can't hear you they aren't a real country.
No foreign policy expert but it seems more complicated than that.
China still does recognise Ukraine as independent in the sense it continues to push for respect of "territorial integrity". It's a key part of Chinese foreign policy, and is what China uses to maintain its false claim over Taiwan (which it sees as Beijing territory, notwithstanding that Taiwanese people see themselves as independent).
Yet it still refuses to condemn Russian aggression on the basis that Russia has "security concerns" which China considers legitimate and the result of the US/NATO.
Confused? So am I. The stance is confused and confusing. It explains why the Beijing narrative seems to change daily as it attempts to push and balance these seemingly irreconcilable views.
> notwithstanding that Taiwanese people see themselves as independent.
It isn’t that cut and dry. Most Taiwanese people prefer the status quo, surely by no small measure due to the fact that an outright declaration of independence would provoke China, but still, people who paint the picture as black and white like you have are either advancing an agenda or simply ignorant of the facts on the ground in Taiwan.
That is the view of their current president and ruling party, yes.
It is not the position of the opposition party, nor does it align with historical precedents. Treating it as the official policy of Taiwan without a higher level of support such as a popular referendum, proclamation, or amendment to the ROC constitution doesn’t pass the smell test (what happens if the KMT comes back into power? Is Taiwan no longer independent?). No major country outside of Taiwan recognizes it as an independent nation for a reason.
I should note that I am personally supportive of the idea of an independent Taiwan, but I’m also able to check my western bias.
I think you're conflating whether Taiwanese people see themselves as independent, on the one hand, and whether they wish to formally declare that, on the other.
"The majority of Taiwanese believe that Taiwan is already an independent country called the Republic of China. ... more than 70 percent of Taiwanese agree with this statement." [0]
Note that I never said the people of Taiwan want to formally declare independence, which may risk starting a war. I'm prepared to accept that many Taiwanese are content with a "status quo" of diplomatic ambiguity, but I never suggested otherwise.
