During the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo, the disruption removed approximately 4.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the market, which constituted about
7% of the global oil supply at the time. This disruption significantly impacted global supplies.
20% is a lot more than 7%. This could be worse than 1973-74.
As a 10year-old in 1973 I remember spending a lot of time in the backseat of the station wagon as we were waiting line line for gas.
For context, during the first COVID spring (March-June 2020) oil demand fell by 20%. Because nobody was driving or flying anywhere. That's what it took to cut 20%.
Yes, couldn't make either face masks or toilet paper during covid. Most people will find out how fragile everything is with idiot MBAs optimizing just-in-time for better quarterly reports!
To look at it another way, we're a lot more globalised than in the 1970s. Resources halfway across the planet that you never even knew you depended on can shut you down when they suddenly go away.
> Ressources can be diverted at a much quicker rate with a lot more agility.
That's completely incorrect.
Covid demonstrated that. We have optimized so strongly for profit (outsource everything, just in time inventory, etc.) that we have no robustness in the face of disruption. There are now single chokepoints everywhere.
Yes, we could retool. But nobody will retool without a check from somebody. Everybody will simply hold their breath waiting for the crisis to pass. Everybody held their breath for Covid; they will absolutely do so with the knowledge that the orange clown will disappear in two years.
