Just to put something out there, I think LLMs will be something like Google.
I remember when Google started improving a lot in 2003-2004, a coworker wrote a blog post "Is Google God?" People thought it was conscious.
It was absolutely revolutionary. It created huge amounts of wealth for itself and others
But clearly it hit a limit. It wouldn't surprised me if LLMs were huge boon for 5 or 10 years, and they hit a fundamental wall, stagnate, and then we repeat the cycle.
I agree with this, and LLMs seem pretty clearly the next step after search engines, in terms of intelligence augmentation. The parallels are too obvious to ignore. Search engines didn't replace humans, but they made us better at what we do, and let us do it with less effort. Also, librarians still have jobs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy
Just to put something out there, I think LLMs will be something like Google.
I remember when Google started improving a lot in 2003-2004, a coworker wrote a blog post "Is Google God?" People thought it was conscious.
It was absolutely revolutionary. It created huge amounts of wealth for itself and others
But clearly it hit a limit. It wouldn't surprised me if LLMs were huge boon for 5 or 10 years, and they hit a fundamental wall, stagnate, and then we repeat the cycle.