Am I wrong for not being worried about SOPA because it's just too stupid to pass? With all the opinions and attention being thrown around the internet, what is the real chance this will go through? What is the real possibility? Maybe it's because I've seen so many "If this law passes it's the end of the internet" cases over the years which never made it through but I just don't see something this idiotic making it through.
So I have to ask, what is the actual chance that SOPA will pass?
My best assessment is that most members of the House who do not serve on the Judiciary Committee have not yet focused on SOPA. People should realize that incredible power they have to impact the thinking of their own Representative on the subject. For example, a very intelligent colleague who is not on the Committee approached me today asking about the bill. Why? He had received an urgent and forthright telephone call from a small business person in his district who is tremendously opposed. He wanted to know more about our Open Act Alternative. This is the power that each of you have with your own Representative.
I have noticed lot of commentary on line, many thoughtful comments, tweets, etc. But most Representatives are not as plugged into the net world as many of you are. To be heard, you must speak, directly and either by phone or in person. Tweets, emails, petitions are nice, but they don't get the same level of attention.
If I had to bet right now (no, not a $10,000 bet!) I would guess that SOPA proponents currently have the upper hand in Congress. But that is because you have not yet been heard from fully yet. That is very much subject to change.
I learned long ago not to try to explain the thinking of other Members of Congress on any given subject. Instead, you should ask them. If they represent you in the House, they most likely will be happy to take your call. Please remember if you do call to be not only forthright but also polite. It's likely that the person answering the phone is some young person who is working long hours for low pay who does not deserve rude treatment. The House is out of session now but I will be happy to participate in AMA on SOPA again in the days ahead. Best wishes, Zoe
> With all the opinions and attention being thrown around the internet, what is the real chance this will go through?
I made a comment about this yesterday and in that comment referenced the "Dear Internet" blog post: this is the problem, the mindset that making a lot of noise on the Internet is going to sway Congress is dead wrong. What makes you think Congress has any idea whatsoever that there are throngs of people on the Internet who vehemently oppose it? You already know Congress is seemingly incompetent when it comes to writing legislation about the Internet so what makes you think they'd be any more knowledgable about opinions on the Internet? The short answer is: they aren't. You should be worried and you should seek traditional means (write, call, get in touch with your rep and senators) of ensuring your opinion on the matter is understood. Our best bet is to encourage the education of Congress about the Internet so we can get favorable legislation passed because as it sits, no it's not so insane (in their eyes) that Congress won't pass it.
This relies on the assumption that congress cares what the people think. As long as the people don't pay large campaign contributions their voices are thoroughly meaningless to their 'representatives'.
As long as bribery is legal (by jumping through hoops and not calling it bribery) the big corporate interests, the ones who've already got sweet deals from government, are unstoppable.
Our democracy is the problem. The idea of voting once every so often for a representative means that we only get one very vague control into the system every few years whereas a company bribing politicians gets literally millions of times more power.
This is exactly the problem. No one thought the DMCA or COPA or CIPA or CDA would pass either. They all did. They didn't pass because they were good for the country, they passed because of the considerable lobby weight behind them.
SOPA and PIA are getting the same treatment. While it may be true that we still have a chance to influence our legislators, it's important to keep in mind that the lobbies haven't really started to work on members outside of the congressional committees yet either.
Given that more than two thirds of the Senate support PROTECT IP and almost four fifths of the House support SOPA in its current, unamended form, blocking it with a filibuster in the Senate is going to be difficult at best (since cloture requires only 60 votes to break a filibuster), and the House is acting like it's going to get passed without amendment.
And then Obama is a totally unknown quantity. We don't know if he's going to veto it or not. And if he does veto, the Senate have enough support to override him with a supermajority.
Yes, you are very wrong for not being worried. The worst part is that the people trying to pass it are too stupid to know what they're doing.
Obama is not an "unknown quantity". Just look at what Joe Biden's been up to -- with and in support of the Administration. (Hint: Very much in favor of legislation such as this.)
> Am I wrong for not being worried about SOPA because it's just too stupid to pass? With all the opinions and attention being thrown around the internet, what is the real chance this will go through?
Assuming the Internet votes on SOPA, it doesn't have a chance in hell. If it's Congress that's voting on SOPA, however, it doesn't really matter what people on the Internet think unless they actually make their opinions known in ways that members of Congress will notice (i.e. not forums, blogs or tweets — more along the lines of phone calls).
> So I have to ask, what is the actual chance that SOPA will pass?
If nothing changes? Pretty good. It's got a lot of support in the House Judiciary Committee, and its supporters are really trying to stack the deck in its favor.
If it doesn't pass they'll come back in six months with an anti-kiddie porn bill that has all the same provisions but this time you'll be a monster who hates children if you speak out against it.
This is how government works. They force crap on you and if you manage to rally and defeat it at great expense they just propose it again. You have to spend your limited resources to fight it and they're getting paid to propose this stuff.
Not only that, but controversial issues pay more in "contributions" from both sides. And conveniently they muddy the water. Who cares if your congressional representative shut down the daycares in your state - they're who you have to lobby to stop SOPA and you'll poison your case with them if you don't drop all your other issues.
This is why I think there needs to be an Amendment to the Constitution that makes all future such bills against the Internet illegal. It's probably the best long term solution.
A blacklist of unacceptable legislation seems like a losing battle, long-term. Much like writing a malware scanner based on virus signatures, it only works against known threats. We need a whitelist of acceptable legislation, instead. Oh, wait, we have one; it just doesn't actually get enforced.
It's certainly not the best example of misuse of DMCA. But I'm glad to hear more people comparing SOPA to DMCA so there is some credibility to where people's fears are stemming from. Congress still hasn't fixed DMCA, and can't be expected to pass SOPA with enough amendments to correct how it can be abused against the American people or the globe!
So I have to ask, what is the actual chance that SOPA will pass?