Those cancerous Twitter login modals are not letting me read the whole thread but I don't agree that China has much to lose here.
They get a far weaker Russia much more dependent on them now economically. Russia is rich in fossil fuels which China lacks and has some advantages in defence and space tech which China can easily get their hands on.
CCP might not be that confident about taking Taiwan now but they get a massive economic boost and a possible big brother relationship with Russia now.
Yeah sorry I am still trying to get into the habit or replacing twitter with nitter. Or could HN have the option to automatically replace it with nitter would be even better.
China is ascendant on the international stage, with trade and diplomatic relations growing rapidly. Russia is near inconsequential compared to their existing economy, trade, and clout. China is at risk of becoming, as someone else put it, the leader of the gang of international misfits. Meanwhile the West is pulling rapidly together while neutral countries are skewing towards their way.
I can’t claim to be an expert, but it seems pretty clear to me that China’s action or inaction on Russia will have huge implications on their next decade and beyond.
> Russia is near inconsequential compared to their existing economy, trade, and clout.
Russia is inconsequential compared to their trade and economy but not clout.
But looking at the overall figures is just partial picture. China imported over 10M barrels of oil per day last year. [1] At current prices of Brent, i.e. an import bill of $1.4 billion per day or $500 billion per year. Imagine getting a discount on that.
Also, Russia still has tech advantages over China in some areas, the best fighter aircraft in PLA's force uses Russian made engines. They rely on Russia for their Air defense systems, the S400.
Sure but a far weaker Russia is what? The worlds 20th largest economy, with a history of having a geopolitical chip on its shoulder (I think most observers would agree that the Russian people would die before becoming ‘chinas little brother’) ?
> think most observers would agree that the Russian people would die before becoming ‘chinas little brother’
That is only if they would realise it, if the Russian propoganda works at home, China might be the only true friend they have in the tough times to come.
They get a far weaker Russia much more dependent on them now economically. Russia is rich in fossil fuels which China lacks and has some advantages in defence and space tech which China can easily get their hands on.
CCP might not be that confident about taking Taiwan now but they get a massive economic boost and a possible big brother relationship with Russia now.